Postseason Watch: Bracket, tiebreakers and more (2024)

The 2024 postseason is approaching. As you keep an eye on the standings, here is everything you need to know about how the playoff field is shaping up, as well as info about potential tiebreakers and clinch scenarios for each contender.

IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY

Here is a look at how the postseason field is shaping up, entering Wednesday. (Teams listed in order of seeding).

AL playoff teams: Yankees (AL East), Guardians (AL Central), Astros (AL West), Orioles (Wild Card), Royals (Wild Card), Twins (Wild Card)

NL playoff teams: Phillies (NL East), Dodgers (NL West), Brewers (NL Central), Padres (Wild Card), D-backs (Wild Card), Mets (Wild Card)

For a look at the full bracket, see the top of this page.

Each of the best-of-three Wild Card Series are set to begin on Oct. 1, while each of the best-of-five Division Series are set to begin on Oct. 5.

CONTENDER BREAKDOWN

Clinched postseason berth: None
Almost there (90% postseason odds or better): Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, Royals, Astros, Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres
In good shape (50-89% postseason odds): Twins, Braves, Mets, D-backs
In the mix (10-49% postseason odds): None
Still alive (1-9%): Tigers, Red Sox, Mariners, Cubs, Rays, Rangers

Note: Odds are rounded to the nearest percent.

TIGHTEST RACES

AL East: Yankees lead Orioles by half a game
AL Central: Guardians lead Royals by 3.5 games
AL Wild Card: Twins lead Tigers by three games
NL Wild Card: Mets and Braves tied
AL West: Astros lead Mariners by 4.5 games

3 KEY GAMES TODAY

TIEBREAKERS

Since 2022, all playoff tiebreakers have been determined mathematically, rather than via tiebreaker games. That means ties for division titles and postseason berths, as well as for seeding, come down first to head-to-head record between those teams during the season, with other tiebreakers available if needed.

Below, MLB.com is tracking the progress of relevant tiebreaker scenarios for contenders (defined here as within four games of a playoff spot).

AL EAST

Yankees
1st in AL East, 0.5 games ahead of BAL in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 100% (61.9% to win division)

If the AL East is still up for grabs by then, the Yankees would need to sweep the Orioles from Sept. 24-26 in the Bronx in order to win the season series and the tiebreaker for a division title.

Orioles
2nd in AL East, 0.5 games behind NYY in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 99.7% (38.1% to win division)

If the Orioles take one of the final three games against the Yankees, and the two teams end the season with the same record, Baltimore would hold the tiebreaker advantage over New York. If the Orioles were to get swept in the final series against the Twins and end the season with the same record as Minnesota, the tiebreaker would be based on intradivision record.

AL CENTRAL

Guardians
1st in AL Central, 3.5 games ahead of KC in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 100% (84.9% to win division)

The Guardians hold important tiebreakers over the Orioles and Twins yet would lose out in scenarios with the Royals and Yankees. Cleveland currently holds a 5 1/2-game lead over the Astros for the second AL seed but would need to sweep the final series to be certain that it would win the tiebreaker. If the Guardians win two of three, the tiebreaker would be based on intradivision record.

Royals
2nd in AL Central, 3.5 games behind CLE in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 95.8% (12.7% to win division)

The Royals arguably clinched their most important tiebreaker by taking the season series against the Guardians. If the two clubs end the season in a tie, Kansas City would have the edge for the division.

Twins
3rd in AL Central, 6 games behind CLE for division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 83.9% (2.4% to win division)

The Twins have an important tiebreaker advantage over the Royals, which could come into play for either a division or Wild Card spot. Minnesota, however, lost the season series against the Guardians and therefore lost the tiebreaker advantage.

AL WEST

Astros
1st in AL West, 4.5 games ahead of SEA in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 96.2% (94.9% to win division)

The Astros have a 4 1/2-game lead over the Mariners, but they'd need to sweep Seattle in the teams' final series from Sept. 23-25 to win the tiebreaker in the event the two clubs close the regular season with the same record.

AL WILD CARD

Tigers
4th in AL Central, 3 games behind MIN for Wild Card
FanGraphs playoff odds: 9.3% (0.0% to win division)

Detroit is in good shape when it comes to tiebreakers involving teams in the Wild Card race, having the advantage over both Boston and Seattle. The Rays are within three games of the Tigers, and there's an outside chance that the tiebreaker with Tampa Bay comes into play. The two meet for a three-game series at Comerica Park from Sept. 24-26.

Red Sox
3rd in AL East, 4 games behind MIN for Wild Card
FanGraphs playoff odds: 6.1% (0.0% to win division)

The Red Sox are still within striking distance of a playoff spot, but they have some ground to make up and only hold one tiebreaker advantage (over the Royals). They'll need to sweep the Twins in their series from Sept. 20-22 to secure the tiebreaker, as winning two of three games will mean the tiebreaker comes down to intradivision record.

Mariners
2nd in AL West, 4.5 games behind HOU for division, 4 games behind MIN for Wild Card
FanGraphs playoff odds: 7.8% (4.9% to win division)

The Mariners need just one win in their final series against the Astros to secure a tiebreaker, which would hand Seattle the AL West if the two teams finish the regular season in a tie.

NL EAST

Phillies
1st in NL East, 8 games ahead of NYM/ATL in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 100% (99.0% to win division)

The Phillies hold a critical tiebreaker advantage over the Dodgers and will clinch it against the Brewers if they win just one of three games in their series in September.

NL CENTRAL

Brewers
1st in NL Central, 8.5 games ahead of CHC in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 99.8% (99.8% to win division)

The Brewers are in a firm position to win one of the top two NL seeds, but they lost the tiebreaker advantage against the Dodgers and will lose it against the Phillies if they drop any of their games in this month's three-game set.

NL WEST

Dodgers
1st in NL West, 4.5 games ahead of SD in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 100.0% (96.7% to win division)

The Dodgers hold a pivotal advantage over the Brewers but don't against the Phillies, meaning Philadelphia would have the advantage if the two teams end the season with the same record.

NL WILD CARD

Padres
2nd in NL West, 4.5 games behind LAD in division
FanGraphs playoff odds: 93.0% (2.8% to win division)

San Diego holds important tiebreaker advantages over three teams, but its biggest one will likely come against the D-backs, given how close the two clubs are in the standings. Those teams play a three-game set in Arizona to finish the season from Sept. 27-29.

D-backs
3rd in NL West, 5 games behind LAD in division, 2 games ahead of NYM/ATL in Wild Card
FanGraphs playoff odds: 84.9% (0.4% to win division)

The biggest tiebreaker scenario for the D-backs is against the Padres, which will be determined during this month's final series between the two teams.

Mets
T-2nd in NL East, 8 games behind PHI in division, tied with ATL in Wild Card
FanGraphs playoff odds: 49.6% (0.5% to win division)

The Mets are still in the thick of the playoff race and hold important tiebreaker advantages over two teams also competing for a Wild Card spot. Since the Mets are tied with the Braves right now, their final series later this month could prove pivotal in who goes to the playoffs. As of now, the Mets hold the tiebreaker advantage based on their intradivision record.

Braves
T-2nd in NL East, 8 games behind PHI in division, tied with NYM in Wild Card
FanGraphs playoff odds: 70.8% (0.4% to win division)

The biggest tiebreaker to watch is against the Mets, with whom Atlanta is tied in the Wild Card chase. The two teams are tied for the season series and have one final series in Atlanta from Sept. 24-26 that will determine who wins the tiebreaker.

Cubs
2nd in NL Central, 4 games behind NYM/ATL in Wild Card
FanGraphs playoff odds: 2.2% (0.2% to win division)

Win tiebreaker vs: None
Lose tiebreaker vs: Braves, Brewers, Mets
Tiebreaker TBD vs: D-backs (3-3)

The Cubs are at a disadvantage by not holding a tiebreaker over any of the teams currently in playoff position. If they end up in a tie with the D-backs, whom they currently trail by six games, each club's record in division games will determine the tiebreaker.